UPDATES

September 4, 2018
A businessman asked if I thought the Trump tax cut helped the economy. 
I said no. 
He said, Why not? The economy is doing really well. 
I said yes it is, but if you look at any chart of economic numbers, all the good numbers started during the Obama presidency and have simply continued under the Trump presidency. 
What about the tax cut? he said. 
I said if you look at the charts, without putting dates on them, there is no way you can tell when the tax cut took place. No blip. No change in direction. Just a continuation of what started during the previous administration. 
So what about the tax cut? he said. 
I said if you look at what individual companies are doing with the money, instead of numbers, you can see the truth. AT&T expects to save $20 billion because of the tax cut and is using it to buy back stock and lay off employees. 
He asked me if that means I think AT&T is evil?
I said no. It simply means we should expect corporations and wealthy people to do what is best for themselves, which is why we should not expect tax cuts for corporations and wealthy people to help the economy. If we look at what individual firms are doing, they are not using their tax breaks to add to wages or employment, which is why the continued good economic news has little or nothing to do with the tax cut.
So it's about politics, he said.
I said it's not about politics. It is about using what we know. Keep it simple, use facts instead of fiction, and we can make better bets on our businesses and investments. If you make a business or investment decision assuming giving tax breaks to those who will neither spend nor invest the money in new production will make the economy better, you may be making a bad bet. A better bet is to assume it will give a temporary boost to stock prices.